The science behind why pickleball players overestimate their skill level
Last Edited
Mar 25 2025
Category
Community
It’s a chronic issue that almost every player has been guilty of at some point on their pickleball journey: Overestimating your own skill level.
Whether it’s a drastic overestimation or bumping yourself up by an extra half point, it’s an easy trap to fall into and one that’s not unique to pickleball – although there are certain aspects of pickleball that make this phenomenon more common in the game.
It’s called the Dunning-Kruger effect. You might have learned about it in a psychology class in high school – if you were paying attention.
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Credited to David Dunning and Justin Kruger in the late 1990s, the theory in simple terms is this: People with low ability in a specific area tend to overestimate their competence and see themselves as more skilled than they actually are.
Sound like somebody you know from pickleball? It’s not their fault – it’s just science.
In general there are four “stops” along a journey to learning a skill that are described in teachings of the Dunning-Kruger effect:
Mt. Stupid
A lot of pickleball players gather here. The scenery is great and the weather is balmy.
Because the basic skills of the game are relatively easy to learn compared to other individual sports like golf or tennis, players can catch on quickly and be fairly competitive at their local open play in no time.
That lulls many into a false sense of security – “Hey, this is pretty easy.”
Then there’s the fact that pickleball has a tendency to hook people fast and hard. They play a couple times and then decide they’re quitting all of their other hobbies – or their jobs – so they can play at the park every day. They watch instructional videos and pro matches. They read about various strategies.
This leads to an imbalance. They have quickly learned a lot about pickleball and how to play it. But they don’t yet have the physical ability to execute all of the shots and strategies that they know about. Simply put: They’re thinking like a 4.5, but they’re still playing like a 3.5.
That leads us to the next stop on the Dunning-Kruger curve.
The Valley of Despair
While pickleball is an easy game to learn, it is a hard one to master. That usually becomes apparent to players as they start to play competitively.
Maybe they enter a local tournament or sign up for a PPA Tour stop in their area.
If it’s a big bracket and they’re in the wrong division, it’s usually not pretty. That’s OK. Somebody has to go 0-2 at these tournaments. Most players who have been playing tournaments for several years have been there.
The good news: There’s light at the end of the tunnel.
The Slope of Enlightenment
Ok, so you got smacked in your last tournament and it’s back to the drawing board.
You’ve seen what a good 4.5 (or perhaps a sandbagging 4.5) looks like up close, and now you know what you need to do to get there.
Maybe it’s time for a lesson with a local pro. Or time to invest in a better paddle – like one from our current top 10 list. Or time to add a fitness aspect and more drilling sessions to your routine.
The Plateau of Sustainability
Congratulations: You’ve reached the final stage of your pickleball journey, and this one continues forever.
You’re still improving, just at a slower pace than you were when you first started playing. There’s another theory that applies here: The law of diminishing returns.
Once you reach a certain point in any activity, the gains start to slow down. It’s not that you can’t continue getting better, but now you're more aware and accepting of your skill level.
And that’s the beauty of pickleball: It’s fun at all levels and once you find the right crew to play with the games become consistently close and competitive.
And there’s always a carrot to chase – the next court over at open play, an upcoming tournament that you want to win or just the satisfaction of knowing you played at the top end of your ability.
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